Summer 2026 is a summer of withering heat in much of Europe. Deadly heat domes smothered the continent in late May, mid-June and now in early July. During the weekend of July 10-12, reporting service Informed Clearly noted the Europe 2026 heat wave in total has killed more than 10,000 people, set new temperature records across 13 countries and sparked devastating wildfires.

Crops have sustained extensive damage from this heat as well. Temperatures in France -- Europe's largest grain-growing nation -- have surpassed 100 degrees Fahrenheit many times this summer. Sunday, July 12, featured more excessive heat, with temperatures of 38 degrees C (100 degrees F) or higher. During the June heat wave, west-central France had temperatures as high as 44.8 degrees C (112.6 degrees F). The impact on Europe's corn production is significant. The July 10 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report featured a reduction in the European Union corn production estimate by 3.7 million metric tons (mmt) to 53.78 mmt, an indication of the heat wave's toll, particularly on French production.

Some Europe-based agencies and analysis firms are going further with crop damage due to the heat. On Friday, European commodity association Coceral reportedly lowered its European Union corn forecast by 8% to 52.7 mmt -- the lowest harvest in almost 20 years, since 2007. Private analysis firm Expana dialed its EU corn crop projection back by 7% last week. And on Friday, July 10, French national agriculture and fisheries ministry AgriMer assed the French corn crop condition at the lowest point in at least 15 years. Intense heat with temperatures in the upper 30s C (high 90s-low 100s F) is expected to move into eastern Europe this week, focusing on Hungary -- another notable EU corn-growing nation.

Record-breaking heat and its impact on crop size is showing up in the commodity markets as well, according to DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst Mitch Miller. Miller noted in an email that corn prices on the Euronext futures exchange have had a "... 41 euro/mt rally from the June 15 low to Wednesday's high (July 8) ... equal to $1.19 U.S. dollar/bushel or $1.69 CAD/bushel."

The EU is now poised to ramp up its corn imports because of the 2026 heat wave impact. "Europe had already taken over the third spot for importing countries with Mexico the leader (at 27.7 mmt) and a group of Southeast Asian countries considered second (24.6 mmt)," he wrote. But after this succession of heat waves, the EU import total could be even higher. "Europe will likely end up challenging Mexico as the world's largest corn importer considering the weather stresses and impacts, which should have a significant impact on prices in the world exporting countries, particularly the U.S.," Miller wrote.

Projections of lower EU corn production may not be over. Analysts note crop losses could eventually be much more severe. In addition, USDA is expected to slowly lower its EU production along with raising EU corn import estimates over the next few months, meaning the fire of the 2026 heat wave parade will be burning for quite a while.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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