Even though the market was looking for significant increases in production totals for Western Canadian crops, Statistics Canada took most a bit (or a lot) further. Eastern Canadian row crops did not fare as well with drought taking its toll on corn and soybean crops.

Statistics Canada summed the growing season up well: "In Western Canada, weather conditions were somewhat variable throughout the 2025 growing season. Despite dry conditions throughout early parts of the summer, timely precipitation later in the growing season considerably improved conditions. The improvement in growing conditions pushed yields and production for several crops grown predominantly in the Prairies to record highs. Harvest conditions were generally good across the Prairies, proceeding roughly in line with historical averages and largely complete by mid-October."

They added, "In Eastern Canada, rainfall was generally below average. Combined with summer heat, these conditions resulted in lower yields in many areas. Like Western Canada, harvest conditions were generally good, with harvest proceeding in a timely manner."

Starting with canola, it actually could have been worse. As suspected for some time, Canadian canola production surprised many as it went through the combine, leaving the final total much above the September Statistics Canada estimate but below the highest pre-report estimate and much below some of the wildest off-the-record suggestions. At 21.804 million metric ton (mmt), it exceeded the September Statistics Canada estimate of 20.03 mmt as well as the average pre-report estimate of 21.25 mmt. The highest guess of the range was 22.1 mmt, so the selloff Wednesday ahead of the report may have already priced in the results. Especially considering the rumor mill was looking for higher totals yet. That still represents a record, exceeding the previous one of 21.458 mmt set in 2017 and resulting in a crop that's 2.565 mmt above last year's total of 19.239 mmt.

All-wheat set a record as well with a whopping 39.955 mmt produced, well above the 36.620 mmt estimate in September and 35.939 mmt harvested last year. Even though it was well above the average pre-report estimate of 38.49 mmt (and the highest at 38.90 mmt), the market has not reacted negatively given the talk all fall of surprisingly strong yields once harvest was complete. The record-setting export pace to date is helping absorb part of the large crop as well, with commercials clearly knowing they had plenty of good quality supplies to offer.

Durum was one exception to the rule as final production totals came in below the average pre-report estimate of 7.150 mmt. With a final production of 7.135 mmt, it still exceeds Statistics Canada's September estimate of 6.54 mmt and last year's total of 6.38 mmt thanks to increased seeded area and yields.

Barley production came out much higher than expected (and last year) thanks to a 25.6% boost in the average yield, more than offsetting a 4.9% decline in harvested area. At 9.725 mmt, it came out well above not only the September Statistics Canada estimate of 8.23 mmt but also the average pre-report estimate of 8.9 mmt. Even though it was well over last year's production of 8.144 mmt, it was nowhere near a record and only marginally over the 25-year average of 9.427 mmt. That said, the extra production will certainly be welcome by feed users considering the expected drop in corn imports, the smaller corn crop within Canada and the exceptional barley export pace to date.

Oat production followed a similar path with Thursday's estimate by Statistics Canada of 3.920 mmt exceeding both the September estimate of 3.37 mmt and last year's production of 3.358 mmt. Higher yields and area contributed to the increase that exceeded the average pre-report estimate of 3.66 mmt.

Corn production came in lighter than both 2024 and the previous estimate, despite strong results in Manitoba. Manitoba produced 2.2 mmt compared to 1.767 mmt last year thanks to an increase in both yield and area. On a national scale, the drought in Eastern Canada more than offset that with total production falling to 14.867 mmt from Statistics Canada's September estimate of 15.500 mmt and last year's 15.345 mmt. The higher production in Manitoba will help offset the lower corn import estimate for the year.

Soybeans followed a similar pattern with 12.3% higher production found in Manitoba (due to higher area, despite lower yields) being more than offset by lower yields and area in Eastern Canada. Total production countrywide came in at only 6.793 mmt, down from 7.568 mmt last year and the September Statistics Canada estimate of 7.134 mmt. It may be unrelated, but both row-crop market prices have turned higher on the day following the report. It does make one wonder how neighboring states in the U.S. with similar weather will have record yields? Time will tell.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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