We are all familiar with weather news headlines discussing the prospect of a Super El Nino during 2026. DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick described the parameters for such a Pacific Ocean warm-water event in an article posted April 30. His Ag Weather Forum article is available here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Baranick highlighted the years 2015, 1997 and 2023 as the three years with the strongest Super El Nino events on record (analysis dating to 1950). And, as weather measurements indicate, the impending 2026 El Nino is showing the kind of vitality that marked the big three Super El Nino events. For example, the atmospheric circulation component of the El Nino-La Nina interplay, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), had a value for April 2026 at minus 9.88 (definite El Nino category). The SOI April reading in 2015 was minus 3.08, far weaker than this year's April value. In 1997, the April SOI was minus 14.35, notably stronger than this year. And in 2023, the April SOI value was minus 1.20; as with 2015, quite a bit less intense than this year's SOI value. So, 2026 is certainly a viable year so far in terms of its Super El Nino potential.

A look at corn production in those top three Super El Nino years has totals that are very high historically for the year.

The strongest Super El Nino year, 2015, had U.S. corn production of 13.6 billion bushels (bb). At the time, that total was third highest on record, trailing 2013 and 2014 corn production. In 1997, U.S. corn production totaled 9.4 bb. At the time, that production was third highest on record, trailing 1994 and 1992. And in 2023, U.S. corn production set a record at 15.3 bb.

The exact story of this growing season's total is yet to be seen, of course. And in the top three Super El Nino years, the U.S. corn crop still had some periods of stress.

For 2015, the USDA Annual Crop Report noted that summer weather was generally favorable for the corn crop. "However, the Midwestern summer rainfall distribution was not ideal, with parts of the southern and Eastern Corn Belt plagued by excessive moisture into July. Some of the previously waterlogged areas experienced a rapid drying trend during August, leading to further crop stress." (USDA Annual Report Jan 2016)

Reviewing the 1997 crop year, USDA's Annual Report noted that spring brought extensive flooding to much of the northern U.S. crop areas. Then, during the summer months, Hot, dry weather in July concerned central Corn Belt farmers, but August rains revived crops. June-August rainfall totals were above normal over most of the country, major exceptions being parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, where rainfall was less than 75% of normal, and the Eastern Seaboard." (Annual Report Jan 1998)

And, in 2023, the primary corn pollination month of July brought temperatures that were below average and generally favorable for this crop stage. Precipitation, however, was variable across the major corn-growing states according to the Annual Report. "Much of the southern Delta, upper Midwest, Southwest, and West remained drier than normal for the month. In contrast, parts of the Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley, Northeast, and Great Plains, as well as locations in the Mid-Atlantic, Rockies, and Southwest, recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation." (Annual Report Jan 2024)

So yes, Super El Nino years had solid corn production, including some record-output totals. In two of the three strongest Super El Nino years, heavy rainfall early in the season, with associated planting delays, was a big issue. But, once fields were planted, production did well. And, this year, planting progress numbers show that this season with a developing Super El Nino has not brought that issue for producers. That's a promising detail at this point of the prospective 2026 Super El Nino.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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