November canola is up $14.00/mt, December soybean oil is up 0.37 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 5.00 euros/mt and October Malaysian palm oil is down 0.30%. December oats are up 3 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 1.50 euros/mt. September crude oil is up $0.42/barrel, September ULSD is up $0.0036/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up 0.00320 at 0.72180. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.425 at 99.430 and the September Brazilian real is down 0.00170 at 0.19015.

Grain and oilseed markets are sharply higher going into midday as the reality of continued attacks by both sides in the Black Sea region leave the attempts to manipulate markets with rumors (on Thursday) a distant memory. Kansas wheat is leading the charge, as is often the case due its competitiveness against Russian wheat exports, with gains of $0.32/bushel at one point. Corn is up $0.09/bushel, completely recovering Thursday's losses and threatening to take out Wednesday's post-WASDE high. Canola and European rapeseed are also displaying their sensitivity to the indefinite shipping disruptions with strong gains of their own.

Energy markets have all turned quietly higher given the risks outlined in the opening comments.

A much weaker-than-expected retail sales report out Friday morning resulted in a temporary spike in treasuries along with additional gains in stocks, but both have sold off since. The 30-year bond continues to lead the group lower as investors fear that another weak report will give yet another reason for the Fed to delay any interest rate increases, allowing inflation to go unchecked, only to be a greater issue later. That is important to agriculture markets because the commodity index trader (CIT) group had liquidated almost 400,000 net long ag contracts from the middle of May to the middle of July when it appeared the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, was going to be very aggressive in fighting inflation. In the past few weeks, they have bought back almost 100,000 of those liquidated contracts as confidence wanes that Warsh will do anything more than just talk. So, these renewed long-term inflation concerns could trigger aggressive buying by the CIT group going forward. Like what we are seeing today. Meanwhile, the lower short-term interest rate concerns have weighed more heavily on the U.S. dollar.

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.