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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
Mitch Miller 9/01 11:03 AM

November canola is up $25.40/mt, December soybean oil is up 1.44 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 11.75 euros/mt and November Malaysian palm oil is up 0.16%. December oats are up 9 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 6.25 euros/mt, setting new contract highs. October crude oil is up $2.51/barrel, October ULSD is up $0.2198/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is down 0.00225 at 0.71990. The September U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.210 at 99.595, and the September Brazilian real is up 0.00150 at 0.19305.

Self-praise is never a good thing, and this is not intended to be that, but there are a few examples today of concepts I often refer to that are too important not to highlight. With grain and oilseeds sharply higher on the same news that the market has been working with for some time, the influence of a month change cannot be dismissed. Profit taking was seen going into the end of August with September starting off with a bang as those that exited want to re-establish positions and those that want (or need) to buy but had held off so they didn't have an open position on the books at month end also eagerly buy now.

The other concept playing out today is the nature of trading within a commercial bull market compared to a run-of-the-mill one. Corrections tend to be shallow, and rallies tend to be aggressive when those that actually use a commodity are concerned about future availability. It should be safe to say that with the European drought kicking it off (in the case of corn), followed by damage to the U.S. corn crop with concerns increasing over a Super El Nino impacting South American corn production in the months to come -- all at a time when Ukraine and Russian corn is not readily available to global importers due to shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region -- that commercials are very likely concerned. And the price action shows it.

Energy markets remain sharply higher on this week's escalation in attacks between Iran and the U.S., with little hope of relief in sight. Diesel and gas futures have made new contract highs, with crude oil not that far off from challenging its own.

In outside markets, stocks are lower on inflation concerns while bonds recovered and are now mixed following a few weaker-than-expected economic reports. The U.S. dollar remains higher on the day.

 
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