Results are in for the 2026 version of simulated crop stages and yield forecasts across the central U.S. in the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Hybrid-Maize crop model. Crop scientists from North Dakota to Kansas, and western Nebraska to Ohio, used the UNL model to simulate crop development and forecast yields at 43 locations.

For the central U.S. as an entire region, the forecasted yield is 1% below the long-term average. Irrigated sites are mostly expected to have below-average yields, and 75% of the rainfed sites are projected to show near-average yields. (Yield forecasts are not field-specific, and do not take into consideration such adverse events as hail or flooding, replant issues, or nutrient leaching.)

The long-term average in the Hybrid-Maize model is defined as the last 20-plus years' potential yield at each location and surrounding area.

A primary reason for the decline in yield compared to the long-term average is the impact of above-normal temperatures during the late grain-filling stages. The Hybrid-Maize Yield report points to above-normal temperatures during late grain filling and notes that the warm conditions lowered yield forecasts at most sites by speeding up the corn crop's progression to the ripening phase.

"Because of this warmth, we had a rapid accumulation of growing degree days, so we really accelerated the crop cycle," said UNL ag climate scientist Eric Hunt during a climate outlook webinar. He emphasized a run of nights in early September when the overnight low readings remained in the 70s Fahrenheit. "To have this happen in September, when daylight and darkness are both basically 12 hours, is very unusual," he said.

The Hybrid-Maize crop model discussion also notes that the extent of warmth from late August to the third week of September likely reduced the length of time for corn ripening by a few days.

In comparison with previous seasons, the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model final corn yield projection is lower than the final forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at irrigated sites. For non-irrigated (rainfed) sites, predicted yields at most locations where corn had not yet reached maturity are projected to have lower yields due to the influence of above-normal nighttime temperatures during late grain filling. The overall forecasted rainfed corn yield for this year is lower than the final 2025 forecast and is close to the long-term average.

The UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model was developed in the early 2000s and has been in use since 2004.

More details on the final Hybrid-Maize 2026 corn yield forecast are available here: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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