January canola is up $6.70/mt, December soybean oil is down .46 cents/pound, February European rapeseed is down .25 euro/mt and January Malaysian palm oil is down .32%. December oats are down 5 3/4 cents/bushel while March European corn is up 2.00 euros/mt. December crude oil is up $.87/barrel, December ULSD is up $.0231/gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00045 at .70240. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .265 at 103.085, and the December Brazilian real is down .00225 at 0.17695.

Thursday morning, markets returned to the same correlations that have become normal lately. President Donald Trump reversed his messaging, stating that "we don't need a deal with Iran," energy markets rallied on the news, recovering from overnight losses and turning higher on the day, Treasury markets sold off, and the U.S. dollar jumped to its highest level in 19 months on the resulting increase in interest rates (with the U.S. 10-year note reaching 5.09%). All providing a headwind for grain and oilseed prices despite a deterioration in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

With the trilateral talks this week providing nothing but a prisoner exchange while Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries by late October, it was punished by reduced Starshield speeds (the military version of Starlink) Thursday morning. That interfered with their ability to defend against Russian drone attacks. But the developments have done nothing to help support Black Sea shipping-related commodities so far.

Tension rising between Washington and China over the alleged Nvidia spy scandal may be adding to the selling pressure in the soybean complex despite another 136,000 mt soybean flash sale announcement Thursday morning (to China).

It's worth noting that canola has been able to avoid falling far enough to fill its gap higher so far (that was left Wednesday evening while catching up to gains seen in Chicago on Wednesday while canola was closed).

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